Local elections are decided by margins so small that organization alone can change the outcome.
This isn’t theory. The data from Los Angeles, New York, Georgia, and decades of academic research all point to the same conclusion: when you organize moderate voters, they win.
Evidence #1
LA council races are decided by a fraction of the electorate.
Since 2011, the majority of LA City Council races have been decided in low-turnout primary elections - never even making it to a general. The people who show up to primaries decide who governs your neighborhood. And in most districts, that’s fewer than 1 in 4 registered voters.(Common Cause California)
Here’s what recent council races actually looked like. The gray bars represent everyone who could have voted. The colored bars are the people who did.
Registered Voters vs. Ballots Cast
CD1 · 2022 Primary
Decided by 2,389 votes
CD14 · 2024 General
Decided by ~7,000 votes
Citywide · 2024 Primary
Average across all districts
The gray space is the opportunity. Those aren’t people who oppose moderate governance - they’re people who weren’t given a reason to participate.
Sources: LA County Registrar-Recorder · ABC7 - CD1 Results · LAist - CD14 Results
Evidence #2
Voter mobilization works. It’s been proven at every scale.
Georgia, 2018-2020
Statewide voter registration + GOTV
After Stacey Abrams’ narrow loss in the 2018 governor’s race, Fair Fight and allied organizations launched a massive voter registration and engagement operation. The result:
800K
new voter registrations across the state between 2018 and 2020
100K+
people who didn’t vote in the 2020 general showed up for the January 2021 Senate runoff
2 seats
flipped in the U.S. Senate - changing the balance of power nationally
The lesson: Georgia wasn’t a swing state - it became one because organizations built the infrastructure to register and mobilize voters who were already there but not participating.
Sources: NBC News · Fair Fight Action
Yale University Research
51 field experiments on voter turnout
Researchers Alan Gerber and Donald Green at Yale’s Institution for Social and Policy Studies conducted the most comprehensive study of voter mobilization methods ever done. Their findings, drawn from 51 randomized field experiments:
Door-to-door canvassing
+4.3 pts
Volunteer phone banking
+2.1 pts
Direct mail (per piece)
+0.5 pts
Robocalls / mass email
~0 pts
The lesson: Personal contact works. Impersonal blasts don’t. This is why Thrive LA invests in community events, neighborhood ambassadors, and direct outreach - not robo-texts.
Sources: Gerber & Green, Yale ISPS · Get Out the Vote, Brookings
The Compounding Effect
Voter mobilization isn’t a one-time cost. Research shows that 30-50% of people who vote for the first time because of a GOTV effort will continue voting in future elections on their own.
Every voter you activate this cycle is easier to reach next cycle. The infrastructure compounds. That’s why starting now - before June 2026 - matters so much.
Sources: Yale ISPS - Voting Habit Formation · Coppock & Green, 2016
Activated Voters Who Keep Voting (Cumulative)
Cycle 1
1,000
Cycle 2
1,400
Cycle 3
1,800
Cycle 4
2,200
Cycle 5
2,600
Cycle 6
3,000
Starting with 1,000 new voters per cycle. Research shows 40% become habitual voters - each cohort adds ~400 permanent participants. By cycle 6, your active voter base has tripled.
What’s at stake: June 2, 2026
Eight Los Angeles City Council seats are on the ballot. Based on historical turnout, the majority of these races could be decided by fewer than 5,000 votes each - in districts with over 100,000 registered voters.
That’s the window. A well-organized operation that activates even a small percentage of disengaged voters can determine who governs half the city council for the next four years.
June 2026 Election
Council seats on the ballot
Over half the city council
Typical margin of victory
Based on recent election cycles
Term length for each seat
This election shapes LA through 2030
The math works. The research is clear. The only missing piece is you.
We don’t need to move mountains. We need to move margins. Join Thrive LA and help us activate the voters who can change Los Angeles.
Thrive LA is a 501(c)(4) social welfare organization. Contributions are not tax-deductible.